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本文摘要:Chinese auto executives do not usually allude to the possibility of a shooting war in the South China Sea in the course of otherwise routine industry briefings. Yet Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, did just that last month during the launch of the company’s latest electric car, developed by its joint venture with Daimler of Germany.中国汽车业高管一般来说会在例会的行业简报中似乎南中国海愈演愈烈战争的可能性。


Chinese auto executives do not usually allude to the possibility of a shooting war in the South China Sea in the course of otherwise routine industry briefings. Yet Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, did just that last month during the launch of the company’s latest electric car, developed by its joint venture with Daimler of Germany.中国汽车业高管一般来说会在例会的行业简报中似乎南中国海愈演愈烈战争的可能性。然而,比亚迪(BYD)董事长王传福上月在发售该公司最新款电动汽车时就这么做到了,这款汽车是该公司与德国戴姆勒(Daimler)合力重新组建的合资公司研发的。Asked why he was optimistic about electric vehicles in the world’s largest automotive market, Mr Wang argued that government policy support would be a critical factor in success, driven in large part by Beijing’s concerns about “the two 60 per cents”.在被问及他为何对全球仅次于汽车市场的电动汽车前景深感悲观时,王传福明确提出,政府政策反对将是一个关键的顺利因素,这在一定程度上受到中国对于“两个60%”忧虑的推展。China now imports about 60 per cent of its annual oil requirement and 60 per cent of those imports are shipped through the South China Sea, a region where the untested People’s Liberation Army Navy is trying to project power and push back its Philippine, Vietnamese and US rivals.中国现在每年的石油市场需求有60%左右依赖进口,其中60%通过南中国海运输,在南中国海,予以沙场的解放军海军正试图感应实力,逼退菲律宾、越南和美国等输掉。

“The South China Sea is a very complicated problem,” Mr Wang said, referring to the region’s territorial disputes that could potentially spark a conflict and disrupt maritime traffic. “If ships could not deliver their oil China would face severe shortages.”“南中国海是一个非常复杂的问题,”王传福回应,他所指的是该地区有可能引起冲突并毁坏海上交通的领土争端。“如果船舶无法载运石油,那么中国将面对相当严重的石油紧缺。”There are other reasons the Chinese government this summer issued new and improved incentives to spur development of so-called NEVs, or new energy vehicles, most notably pollution. But Mr Wang argued that geopolitical concerns loomed largest in its formulation of policy support for alternative energy vehicles.今年夏季,中国政府发售新的、补贴力度增大的鼓舞措施,以增进“新能源汽车”的研发,其中还有其他原因,最引人注目的是污染。

但王传福坚称,地缘政治忧虑是实施面向替代能源汽车的政策反对的仅次于因素。“Oil security is the biggest driver for NEV development,” he said, adding that Premier Li Keqiang’s “war on pollution”, declared in March this year, was “the second driver”.他回应:“石油安全性是推展新能源汽车发展的最重要因素,”他补足称之为,李克强总理今年3月宣告“向污染开战”是“第二个推展因素”。Mr Wang is a good salesman and clearly has an interest in highlighting forces that may drive up BYD’s share price, especially given a collapse in sales of its gasoline-fuelled cars this year. But his analysis is worth paying attention to. Chinese auto executives, who are far better connected than their expatriate counterparts at multinational car companies, rarely share their insights on Beijing’s motivations and longer-term objectives in public settings.王传福擅长于促销,似乎,他特别强调有可能推升比亚迪股价的因素对自己是有益处的,特别是在今年该公司汽油动力汽车销量大幅度下降的情况下。

但他的分析是有一点注目的。政界人脉相比之下优于跨国车企外籍高管的中国汽车业高管,很少在公开场合共享他们对于中国政府动机以及较长年目标的洞见。BYD’s chairman also has better tuned political antennas than most.比亚迪董事长的政治脆弱也要好于多数人。

In addition to succeeding as a private entrepreneur in a state-dominated industry – BYD began as a manufacturer of mobile phone batteries before diversifying into cars – Mr Wang also has rather unusual partners.除了在一个政府主导的行业沦为一个顺利的民营企业家(比亚迪最初是一家手机电池制造商,后来进占汽车业)以外,王传福还有一些不奇怪的合作伙伴。One of his largest investors is Li Lu, a student leader during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. After those ended in bloodshed, Mr Li fled to the US and ended up a billionaire fund manager. The former democracy activist spotted BYD’s potential early and introduced Mr Wang to his idol, Warren Buffett, whose MidAmerican Energy Holdings is now the biggest single shareholder in the company.他的仅次于投资者之一是李禄,李禄曾在1989年天安门广场学生抗议活动中兼任学生领袖。


在抗议遭剧痛反抗后,李禄逃到美国,最后沦为一名亿万富翁基金经理。这位前民主活动人士早早找到了比亚迪的潜力,并把王传福讲解给他的偶像沃伦巴菲特(Warren Buffett),巴菲特有限公司的中美能源(MidAmerican Energy Holdings)现在是比亚迪仅次于单一股东。Chinese demand for NEVs has been tepid, largely because of drivers’ concerns about the availability of an adequate charging infrastructure. There are only about 70,000 NEVs in use in China, most of them public buses or taxis. That suggests the government’s target of 500,000 NEV sales next year and 5m by 2020 will be difficult to reach.中国对新能源汽车的市场需求仍然不央,主要是因为潜在车主对充电站的覆盖率深感忧虑。中国的新能源汽车保有量只有7万辆左右,其中多数为公交车或出租车。

这指出,中国政府制订的到明年销售50万辆以及到2020年销售500万辆新能源汽车的目标将很难构建。But Mr Wang said the government was determined to succeed – and not just because it wants a vehicle fleet that can keep running even if maritime lifelines to Middle East oilfields were to be cut off. Beijing, he said, is concerned that while its auto industry may be the world’s largest, it is not the strongest. Foreign brands dominate the market.然而,王传福回应,政府决意实现目标,不仅因为如果通向中东油田的海上运输线被截断,中国期望享有一支可以之后运转的车队。他回应,中国政府担忧,尽管本土汽车行业有可能为全球规模仅次于,但并非全球实力最弱。外国品牌支配着中国市场。

According to BYD’s chairman, NEVs offer China’s domestic auto companies an alternative route to industry dominance. He is not alone in this view.王传福回应,新能源汽车将给中国国内汽车厂商获取另一条夺回行业主导地位的途径。这并非他一人的观点。Yesterday, the EU Chamber of Commerce in China expressed concern that government subsidies and incentives for NEVs only apply to those “produced in China under a Chinese brand”. That means underlying technologies have to be disclosed to local authorities.最近,中国欧盟商会(EU Chamber of Commerce in China)回应担忧,针对新能源汽车的政府补贴和鼓舞措施只限于于那些“在中国生产的中国品牌”汽车。

这意味著,核心技术必需向中国当局透露。“While at one level [NEVs] are meant to alleviate China’s dependency on imported oil, on another, [government policy] is a blueprint for the development of an indigenous electric vehicle industry that might one day trump the dominant position of multinational [car companies],” the chamber’s automotive working group said in a position paper.中国欧盟商会汽车工作组在一份意见书中回应:“一方面,(新能源汽车)目的减轻中国对进口石油的倚赖,另一方面,(政府政策)是自律电动车产业发展的一份蓝图,有朝一日可能会代替跨国(汽车制造商)的主导地位。”It argued that Beijing’s strategic vision ignores the fact that “the automotive industry has long been highly globalised...in ways that benefit all economic players as well as consumers”.意见书明确提出,中国政府的战略愿景忽略了一个事实:“汽车行业长年全球化……这不利于所有经济参与者以及消费者。

”It would ironic if China’s 21st century quest for energy security was undermined by old-fashioned protectionist instincts.如果中国对21世纪能源安全的执着被陈旧的保护主义本能的巩固,那将是具备嘲讽意味的。